Food Plays An Important Part In The Development Of Nations, Fermented Fruits And Vegetables

     
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Source: adapted from reference 4 with the permission ofthe publisher.WHO 03.19 Figure 2. Calories from major commodities in developing countries
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Source: reproduced from reference 13 the permission ofthe publisher.WHO 03.21 3.7 Future trends in demand, foodavailability & consumptionIn recent years the growth rates of world agriculturalproduction & crop yields have slowed. This has raised fears that the world maynot be able to grow enough food và other commodities to ensure that futurepopulations are adequately fed. However, the slowdown has occurred not becauseof shortages of land or water but rather because demand for agriculturalproducts has also slowed. This is mainly because world population growth rateshave been declining since the late 1960s, and fairly high levels of foodconsumption per person are now being reached in many countries, beyond whichfurther rises will be limited. It also true that a high nội dung of theworld’s population remains in poverty và hence lacks the necessary incometo translate its needs into effective demand. As a result, the growth in worlddemand for agricultural products is expected khổng lồ fall from an average 2.2% peryear over the past 30 years khổng lồ an average 1.5% per year for the next 30 years.In developing countries the slowdown will be more dramatic, from 3.7% per yearto 2% per year, partly as a result of đài loan trung quốc having passed the phase of rapidgrowth in its demand for food. Global food shortages are unlikely, but seriousproblems already exist at national và local levels, & may worsen unlessfocused efforts are made.The annual growth rate of world demand for cereals hasdeclined from 2.5% per year in the 1970s & 1.9% per year in the 1980s to only1% per year in the 1990s. Annual cereal use per person (including animal feeds)peaked in the mid-1980s at 334 kg & has since fallen to 317 kg. The decline isnot a cause for alarm, it is largely the natural result of slower populationgrowth and shifts in human diets and animal feeds. During the 1990s, however,the decline was accentuated by a number of temporary factors, including seriouseconomic recessions in the transition countries & in some East and South-EastAsian countries.The growth rate in the demand for cereals is expected khổng lồ riseagain lớn 1.4% per year up until 2015, slowing to lớn 1.2% per year thereafter. Indeveloping countries overall, cereal production is not expected to keep pacewith demand. The net cereal deficits of these countries, which amounted to lớn 103million tonnes or 9% of consumption in 1997-1999, could rise khổng lồ 265 milliontonnes by 2030, when they will be 14% of consumption. This gap can be bridged byincreased surpluses from traditional grain exporters, & by new exports fromthe transition countries, which are expected to lớn shift from being net importersto being net exporters.Oil crops have seen the fastest increase in area of any cropsector, expanding by 75 million hectares between the mid-1970s & the kết thúc ofthe 1990s, while cereal area fell by 28 million hectares over the same period.Future per capita consumption of oil crops is expected lớn rise more rapidly thanthat of cereals. These crops will account for 45 out of every 100 extrakilocalories added to average diets in developing countries between now and2030.There are three main sources of growth in crop production:expanding the land area, increasing the frequency at which it is cropped (oftenthrough irrigation), and boosting yields. It has been suggested that growth incrop production may be approaching the ceiling of what is possible in respect ofall three sources. A detailed examination of production potentials does notsupport this view at the global level, although in some countries, & even inwhole regions, serious problems already exist & could deepen.Diets in developing countries are changing as incomes rise.The mô tả of staples, such as cereals, roots and tubers, is declining, whilethat of meat, dairy products và oil crops is rising. Between 1964-1966 and1997-1999, per capita meat consumption in developing countries rose by 150% andthat of milk & dairy products by 60%. By 2030, per capita consumption oflivestock products could rise by a further 44%. Poultry consumption is predictedto grow the fastest. Productivity improvements are likely to lớn be a major sourceof growth. Milk yields should improve, while breeding & improved managementshould increase average carcass weights & off-take rates. This will allowincreased production with lower growth in animal numbers, và a correspondingslowdown in the growth of environmental damage from grazing và animalwastes.In developing countries, demand is predicted to lớn grow fasterthan production, resulting in a growing trade deficit. In meat products thisdeficit will rise steeply, from 1.2 million tonnes per year in 1997-1999 khổng lồ 5.9million tonnes per year in 2030 (despite growing meat exports from LatinAmerica), while in the case of milk and dairy products, the rise will be lesssteep but still considerable, from 20 million tonnes per year in 1997-1999 to lớn 39million tonnes per year in 2030. An increasing tóm tắt of livestock productionwill probably come from industrial enterprises. In recent years, production fromthis sector has grown twice as fast as that from more traditional mixed farmingsystems và more than six times faster than that from grazing systems.World fisheries production has kept ahead of population growthover the past three decades. Total fish production has almost doubled, from 65million tonnes in 1970 to 125 million tonnes in 1999, when the world averageintake of fish, crustaceans and molluscs reached 16.3 kilogam per person. By 2030,annual fish consumption is likely to lớn rise lớn some 150-160 million tonnes, orbetween 19-20 kilogam per person. This amount is significantly lower than thepotential demand, as environmental factors are expected khổng lồ limit supply. Duringthe 1990s the marine catch levelled out at 80-85 million tonnes per year, & bythe turn of the century, three-quarters of ocean fish stocks were overfished,depleted or exploited up to lớn their maximum sustainable yield. Further growth inthe marine catch can only be modest.Aquaculture compensated for this marine slowdown, doubling itsshare of world fish production during the 1990s. It is expected lớn continue togrow rapidly, at rates of 5-7% per year up to 2015. In all sectors of fishing itwill be essential to lớn pursue forms of management conducive to lớn sustainableexploitation, especially for resources under common ownership or noownership. 3.8 ConclusionsA number of conclusions can be drawn from the precedingdiscussion.Most of theinformation on food consumption has hitherto been obtained from national FoodBalance Sheet data. In order khổng lồ better understand the relationship between foodconsumption patterns, diets & the emergence of noncommunicable diseases, it iscrucial lớn obtain more reliable information on actual food consumption patternsand trends based on representative consumption surveys. There is a need to lớn monitor howthe recommendations in this report influence the behaviour of consumers, andwhat further kích hoạt is needed lớn change their diets (and lifestyles) towardsmore healthy patterns. The implications foragriculture, livestock, fisheries and horticulture will have to be assessed andaction taken to giảm giá khuyến mãi with potential future demands of an increasing and moreaffluent population. Khổng lồ meet the specified levels of consumption, new strategiesmay need lớn be developed. For example, a realistic approach khổng lồ theimplementation of the recommendation concerning high average intake of fruit andvegetables, requires attention khổng lồ be paid to crucial matters such as where wouldthe large quantities needed be produced, how can the infrastructure be developedto permit trade in these perishable products, & would large-scale productionof horticultural products be sustainable? A number of more novel matterswill need to be dealt with, such as:- the positive và negative impacts onnoncommunicable diseases of intensive production systems, not only in terms ofhealth (e.g. Nitrite in vegetables, heavy metals in irrigation water và manure,pesticide use), but also in terms of dietary unique (e.g. Leaner meats inintensive poultry production);- the effects of longer food chains, in particular of longerstorage và transport routes, such as the higher risk of deterioration (even ifmost of this may be bacterial và hence not a factor in chronic diseases), andthe use & misuse of conserving agents and contaminants;- the effects of changes in varietal composition & diversityof consumption patterns, for example, the loss of traditional crop varietiesand, perhaps even more significantly, the declining use of foods from“wild” sources. Trade aspects need khổng lồ beconsidered in the context of improving diet, nutrition and the prevention ofchronic diseases. Trade has an important role khổng lồ play in improving food andnutrition security. On the import side, lower trade barriers reduce domesticfood prices, increase the purchasing power of consumers và afford them agreater variety of food products. Freer trade can thus help enhance theavailability & affordability of food & contribute lớn a better-balanced diet.On the export side, access khổng lồ markets abroad creates new income opportunitiesfor domestic farmers and food processors. Farmers in developing countries inparticular stand khổng lồ benefit from the removal of trade barriers for commoditiessuch as sugar, fruits and vegetables, as well as tropical beverages, all thesebeing products for which they have a comparative advantage.


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The impact that agriculturalpolicies, particularly subsidies, have on the structure of production,processing and sale systems - and ultimately on the availability of foodsthat support healthy food consumption patterns - should not beoverlooked.All these issues and challenges need to lớn be addressed in apragmatic & intersectoral manner. All sectors in the food chain, from“farm to table”, will need khổng lồ be involved if the food system is torespond to the challenges posed by the need for changes in diets to lớn cope withthe burgeoning epidemic of noncommunicable diseases. References1. Drewnowski A, Popkin BM. The nutrition transition:new trends in the global diet. Nutrition Reviews, 1997,55:31-43.2. Ferro-Luzzi A, Martino L. Obesity và physicalactivity. Ciba Foundation Symposium, 1996, 201:207-221.3. World agriculture: towards 2015/2030. Summaryreport. Rome, Food & Agriculture Organization of the United Nations,2002.4. Bruinsma J, ed. World agriculture: towards2015/2030. An gamize.vn perspective. Rome, Food và Agriculture Organization ofthe United Nations/London, Earthscan, 2003.5. Fats and oils in human nutrition. Report of a JointExpert Consultation. Rome, Food & Agriculture Organization of the UnitedNations, 1994 (gamize.vn Food và Nutrition Paper, No. 57).6. Guo X et al. Structural change in the impact ofincome on food consumption in đài loan trung quốc 1989-1993. Economic Development andCultural Change, 2000, 48:737-760.7. Popkin BM. Nutrition in transition: the changingglobal nutrition challenge. Asia Pacific Journal of Clinical Nutrition,2001, 10(Suppl. 1):S13-S18.8. Beaufoy G. The environmental impact of olive oilproduction in the European Union: practical options for improving theenvironmental impact. Brussels, Environment Directorate-General, EuropeanCommission, 2000.9. Spedding CRW. The effect of dietary changes onagriculture. In: Lewis B, Assmann G, eds. The social & economic contexts ofcoronary prevention. London, Current Medical Literature, 1990.10. Pimental D et al. Water resources: agriculture, theenvironment & society. Bioscience, 1997, 47:97-106.11. The state of the world fisheries & aquaculture2002. Rome, Food & Agriculture Organization of the United Nations,2002.12. India nutrition profile 1998. New Delhi, Departmentof Women & Child Development, Ministry of Human Resource Development,Government of India, 1998.13. Fresco LO, Baudoin WO. Food và nutrition securitytowards human security. In: Proceedings of the International Conference onVegetables, (ICV-2002), 11-14 November 2002, Bangalore, India. Bangalore, DrPrem Nath Agricultural Science Foundation (in press).